El Niño Strengthens in the Pacific, With Implications for India’s Monsoon

A strengthening El Niño pattern in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is weakening the winds that typically carry moisture toward the Indian subcontinent, according to climate researchers. While the phenomenon doesn’t directly touch Indian soil, few climate patterns influence the country’s agricultural fortunes as significantly.

Data compiled by ICRIER going back to 1951 shows that in 11 of 15 moderate-to-severe El Niño years, India’s agricultural output has contracted, with monsoon rainfall falling by an average of 9.7 percent in those years. Experts are urging accelerated investment in drought-resistant crop varieties and water harvesting infrastructure to reduce the country’s exposure to future El Niño cycles.